The Coalition is ideally-placed to overhaul and strengthen its climate policies next year. A Footprint analysis.
Clean Energy Regulator statistics show the Morrison government's core climate policies have stalled and are failing to reach their objectives.
The Emissions Reduction Fund contracted only 59,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement this year – less than one percent of what was contracted the previous year.
In addition, the Safeguard Mechanism is proving ineffective in controlling emissions from major emitters.
In the 2018 financial year, emissions from large-emitting facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism totalled 138.4 million tonnes, 7.1 million tonnes more than in the 2017 financial year.
Fire and drought have prompted widespread calls for more federal action, and business is increasingly supportive of the need for new measures.
Demands for new, more rigorous approaches have so far been resisted by the Morrison government.
However, there are plenty of signs that it is considering an overhaul, mostly in the form of a range of reviews scheduled for completion over the next 12 months.
Below are 10 of the most significant developments.
One. A Grant King-led review is examining "opportunities for further greenhouse gas abatement". The King review will make recommendations in time to give Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor the option of seeking extra funds in next year's Budget.
Two. The government is committed to developing a long-term strategy on climate change in 2020, which will be aligned with a review of the Safeguard Mechanism. The review will also consider if and how the government should allow the use of international carbon abatement units.
Three. The Climate Change Authority will soon be advising the government on Australia's progress towards its 2030 emissions goals, while also recommending strategies that lead "clearly and firmly" to net-zero.
Four. The Energy Security Board will, towards the end of 2020, provide governments with its advice on a post-2025 market design for the National Electricity Market.
Five. The government will release a national electric vehicle strategy in mid-2020.
Six. A review of the main federal environment law, the EPBC Act, is due for completion next October. The merits of a new greenhouse gas "trigger" for EPBC assessment is certain to be examined.
Seven. The federal government is showing interest in new energy productivity measures. The discussion paper issued by the Grant King-led panel that is advising Taylor highlighted energy efficiency, and five ERF efficiency methods are under review.
Eight. The $2 billion Climate Solutions Fund, which will rejig, reinvigorate and replace the Emissions Reduction Fund in ways yet to be finalised, will be deployed from 2020.
Nine. The government has to show how its strategies align with Paris Agreement rules and goals at international climate talks that will be held in late 2020.
Ten. The government is well aware of the political impact of being seen to be doing nothing, and knows some existing strategies will fade without a reboot.
For example, the RET enters its post-target decade, although it could have a new, different role, and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency will run out of money. In addition, Safeguard changes introduced in March 2019 – unless there are more adjustments – only make it easier for companies to obtain more generous emission limits.
The government also knows its plan to rely heavily on previous 'carryover' abatement to meet its 2030 goal is unorthodox, creating a risk it will prove unacceptable.
In short, pressure for action is growing, and it's clear that over the next 12 months advice on how to act will be plentiful.
