If the world waits any later than 2014 to rapidly deploy an array of low-carbon industries – not just the lowest cost ones – then it will have little prospect of preventing runaway climate change, according to a global report prepared for WWF Australia.
After that time, it will be impossible for low-carbon industries to grow fast enough to prevent greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rising to a point where they can't be returned to safe levels, it says.
"The process of low-carbon re-industrialisation must be at full speed no later than 2014," says the report, prepared by Climate Risk and reviewed by individuals including Princeton University's Robert Socolow, co-author of the well-known 2004 stabilisation wedges scenario for tackling climate change.
"No matter how strong our desire for a transformation to a low-carbon world may be, the ability to make this transformation is restricted by available resources, manpower and technologies," says WWF International Director-General James Leape in a foreword to the report.
(Report will be available on WWF Australia website shortly)
"That is why we only have until 2014 to set the wheels in motion. Beyond this, a 'war-footing' may be the only option remaining, with no guarantee of success."
Upper limit of industry growth
The report says an average annual growth rate of 30% is the "upper limit" of sustained industry growth in a free market, with growth rates of 5% "typical" in the energy sector.
It points out that the latest science suggests that if greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere exceed 475ppm then it might not be possible to return to a level of 440ppm – the level needed to have a reasonable prospect of restricting global warming to an average 2oC.
Yet greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have already risen to 463ppm.
If the world begins the task of rapidly deploying low-carbon technologies by 2014 at the latest then it ought to be possible to make the emission cuts that are necessary by 2050, it says.
But that will have to involve simultaneously developing and deploying an extensive array of low-carbon activities and industries – even those not currently profitable – rather than sequentially them rolling out, it says.
Deploying the lowest cost measures in series – the likely outcome if the world relies solely on a carbon price signal to drive action – would result in emissions in 2050 at "more than double" the levels under the simultaneous roll-out scenario, it says.
Two scenarios
The report models two scenarios – cutting emissions to 63% below 1990 levels by 2050 and cutting them 80% by 2050.
"Under both scenarios, every key low-carbon resource and industry must be under their maximum rate of development by 2014," it says.
"For the 63% reduction scenario, each of these resources and industries must grow at between 22% and 26% every year until they reach a scale that provides reasonable certainty of achieving the necessary global emissions levels by mid-century," it says.
Aiming for an 80% cut by 2050 – and boosting the chances of not going above 2C – requires the re-industrialisation process "to begin immediately with growth rates of between 24% and 29%".
The report identifies 24 identifies 24 low-carbon wedges – in the form of industries and activities – that must be developed at high growth rates to achieve emissions cuts of up to about 80% by 2050 (see for example page 68 of the report's electronic version).
It estimates that developing and deploying these industries and activities will cost an additional US$6.7 trillion (63% cut scenario) to US$7 trillion (80% scenario) through to 2050.
If CCS is included, costs rise to as much as US$10 trillion.
However, once the various renewable energy technologies achieve sufficient economies of scale, they will become lower cost options than the fossil fuel-based business-as-usual generation technologies, it says.
The private sector "must be prepared for a massive scale-up of the low-carbon sector and not stand in the way of this transformation", it says.
"Governments must create a stable long-term investment environment that fosters a secure market for all low-carbon industries and their investors."
The report assumes no major changes in population growth, GDP growth "or fundamental lifestyle choices".
